Raza Hasnain Naqvi
Opinion polls are gradually getting prominent attention once again as UP elections come closer. These opinion polls are organized with the help of surveys and two kinds of survey results are coming. One survey predicts victory for the BJP, the second kind predicts victory for the SP.
As UP elections come closer with the passing of every day, opinion polls have also started predicting the destiny and political state of affairs of the parties. With the SP emerging as a strong contender to the BJP in the 2022 UP assembly polls, survey agencies have also picked up business as they telecall and even go meet voters individually to get their survey questions answered.
ABP-CVoter Survey Predicts Increase in BJP Vote Share
In a survey that was televised on December 18, 2021, the ABP-CVoter survey shows that the BJP vote share percentage has increased. At the same time, the survey has also shown that the SP is giving a good fight.
The survey has predicted that the BJP could get 40-41% of the vote share in the UP assembly election 2022.
Out of the total seats which are 403 in the UP assembly, here is the percentage vote share that the parties can expect, based on the recent opinion poll.
- BJP+ -—-> 41%
- SP+ —–> 34%
- BSP —–> 13%
- Congress —–> 7%
- Others —–> 5%
Elect Line-DB Live Poll Survey Shows SP Winning Most Seats
According to the Elect Line opinion poll survey shown on the DB Live YouTube channel on Dec 25, 2021, the region-wise breakup of expected winning seats of BJP and SP are as follows:
East UP seats
BJP —-> 70-72
SP —-> 82-84
West UP seats
BJP —-> 37-39
SP —-> 82-84
BJP —-> 30-32
SP —-> 32-34
BJP —-> 7-9
SP —-> 7-9
In order to form a government in Uttar Pradesh, a party has to secure 202 seats.
The expected total winning seats for political parties in UP according to the recent Elect Line-DB Live Poll survey are:
BJP+ —-> 144-152
SP+ —-> 203-211
BSP —-> 12-20
INC —-> 19-27
OTH —-> 5-13
Why is SP Gaining Ground in UP?
There are a number of factors that are contributing to this rise in expected winning seats for the Samajwadi Party in UP assembly elections 2022.
- Uncle Shivpal Yadav has now aligned himself with nephew Akhilesh Yadav. Whatever bitterness was there between them has been resolved. This ensures that Yadav votes will remain consolidated.
- Hari Shankar Tiwari is an influential Purvanchal Brahmin leader from Gorakhpur. He has a strong support base in East UP. He has joined the SP. This gives Akhilesh a stronger foothold in getting support from Brahmins, as well as Purvanchal voters.
- Farmer leader Rakesh Tikait has brought Jats and Muslims together, especially during the Muzaffarnagar Kisan Mahapanchayat of September 2021. He went on to raise two religious slogans together on the same platform saying Har Har Mahadev and Allah-o-Akbar. Tikait said that both Jats and Muslims are brothers who can’t be separated and that the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 were a mistake. This coming together of two communities could be beneficial for the SP alliance.
- RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary has made an alliance with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP. Jayant is drawing big crowds in his rallies in West UP even without the presence of Akhilesh.
- In Bundelkhand, support for Akhilesh can be sensed in that during the Samajwadi Vijay Yatra that went from there, people waited till 2 am at night to see and hear Akhilesh.
- In previous polls, BJP had the support of Brahmins, Bhumihars and OBCs like non-Yadav and non-Jatav communities. But this time around, there is anger among these communities against the BJP. Voters are not united and scattering away.
- The Jat-Muslim-Dalit alliance has emerged as a strong and influential entity.
- The alliance between Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party and the SP has brought the Rajbhar Samaj on the side of SP.
- Another interesting development is the status of Apna Dal. Union Minister and national president of Apna Dal (Sonelal) group Anupriya Patel who is an MP from Mirzapur has said recently that her party is keeping all options open in UP, even though she is with the BJP at present. Her mother Krishna Patel of Apna Dal (Krishna group) has already announced alliance of her faction with the SP in November 2021.
- There is a strong anti-incumbency factor at work in UP.
Read also: UP Elections: Important Updates
Just a Thought
The surveys are giving their own spins to which party will end up victorious in the UP assembly elections 2022. Political experts have also noted that Congress is making its presence felt in the state. Even though it is not in the race to form the government in UP, but it is emerging as a third option for voters as the elections come nearer. The coming months will show how the numbers will change in these surveys and what destiny awaits the political parties in Uttar Pradesh in 2022.