The coronavirus pandemic is likely to last between 18 and 24 months, scientists from the University of Minnesota have predicted.
In a report published Thursday, researchers from the university’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) stressed that Covid-19 was more contagious than the flu and was likely to continue circulating after a first wave this spring.
The new coronavirus has a longer incubation period than the flu, meaning it takes longer for symptoms to appear after a person has been infected, they said, noting that the coronavirus may be at its most contagious before symptoms appear. It was also pointed out that Covid-19 has displayed a higher rate of asymptomatic transmission, as well as a higher R0 rating than influenza.
An R naught, or R0, rating of 1 means a person infected with the virus will, on average, spread it to one other person. An outbreak is expected to continue if a disease is given an R naught value higher than 1 during an event like the current pandemic. Covid-19′s R0 has been estimated between 1.4 and 5.7 in various studies — but CIDRAP noted a rating was difficult to establish due to variations in identifying and testing infected people between regions.
“Some countries appear to have been able to drive their R0 for (Covid-19) below 1 with mitigation measures, although as the mitigation measures are lifted, the R0 in any given area may creep back above 1, leading to disease resurgence over time,” the report’s authors said.
“A higher R0 means more people will need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic can end,” they added. “It likely won’t be halted until 60% to 70% of the population is immune.”
Based on the most recent flu pandemics, and the rate at which the coronavirus is able to spread, the report projected the Covid-19 outbreak would last between 18 months and two years.
