France is taking a dangerous bet by choosing a full-fledged conflict with the US over losing a mega-contract for submarines for Australia. Other countries are not flocking to its rescue. Following Australia’s decision to forego a deal for conventional submarines favouring nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, France took the unusual step of withdrawing its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra for talks.
France has put itself in a situation where it can only look to be backing down or losing face if its ambassador returns to the United States, its traditional friend. As part of a new three-way alliance with the United States and Britain, Australia decided that nuclear submarines were the better option for ensuring its maritime edge.
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With a contract worth $50 billion when it was signed in 2016, the French outrage may signal to the country’s strong military sector that political leaders are putting pressure on them. On the other hand, the diplomatic impact is less certain, with France seeming isolated at the UN General Assembly’s outset.
Germany, a fellow EU powerhouse with elections coming up next Sunday, isn’t exactly keen to get involved. The administration just stated that it was aware of the situation. According to Celia Belin, a transatlantic relations scholar at the Brookings Institution, France may mobilise neighbouring European states around common impressions that the Biden administration has a Europe policy.
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While most European countries cheered at Biden’s triumph over the controversial Donald Trump, European friends chastised him for his hasty exit from Afghanistan, which resulted in a Taliban victory after a 20-year NATO-backed war. Another sore issue is the continuing Covid-19 restriction on most Europeans travelling to the United States, despite the European Union relaxing entry rules for Americans, aided by countries that rely on tourism.
