New Delhi: Indian Meteorological Department has predicted the onset of Southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 31.
“This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 31 May with a model error of ± four days,” said IMD in a press release on Friday.
Advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian main land is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from hot and dry season to a rainy season. Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1 June with a standard deviation of about seven days.
Prediction of monsoon progress is based on Models using six predictors – Minimum Temperatures over North-west India, Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over the south-west Pacific region.
In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in a north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around 22nd May.