After being refused party tickets, some notable people from the Congress and the BJP are running as independents in this election. The official candidates for their respective seats are being closely monitored by the Congress party due to the almost twenty dissident candidates, who pose a serious danger to them. Roughly 10 BJP dissidents are also seeking public office. From what we can see with the present statistics, these elections seemed to have been a triangle struggle for around 30 seats.
According to political observers, if the threshold is not met, the rebels will get increasingly engaged in the state’s operations.
The state leadership positions have been filled by members of the BJP and the Congress parties, with the latter struggling to make a splash. The Congress has done little to support rebels and independents after Ashok Gehlot’s 2018 efforts to reach out to them and set up resorts to protect them.
The Congress and the BJP are now focusing on dissident and independent candidates with significant power who may sway the poll in their respective seats. The two major parties are attempting to woo independents and dissidents, just as they did in the last two elections.
By courting independents, Gehlot was able to become chief minister in 2018. He won their backing and solidified the cabinet structure of Congress. Significantly, in 2018, rebels caused a stir in politics by capturing 39 seats with margins of more than 1000 votes. Out of twenty-two separate contests for office, thirteen people were declared winners. In the 29 hotly contested seats, the Congress won nine, the BJP thirteen, others four, and independents three. Additionally, nine seats were at risk of elimination due to the small margin of victory (less than one thousand votes).
Keep an eye out for notorious rebels such as Chettorgarh assemblyman Chandrabhan Aakhya, Didwana chief Yunus Khan, Banshidhar Bajiya, Jeevaram Chaudhary, Ravindra Singh Bhati, Jaswant Singh Gurjar of the independent parliament, marble merchant Suresh Tak of Kishangarh, and Jhotwara chief Ashu Singh Surpura.
You should also keep an eye on Jaswant Singh Gurjar, a former speaker of the Bari assembly who switched parties after being denied a BJP ticket, and Ravindra Singh Bhati, a former speaker of the Sheo assembly. In addition, everyone will be looking closely at these individuals: Alok Beniwal, an independent MLA from Shahpura (Jaipur), Om Vishnoi, a former minister from Lunkaransar, Fateh Khan, an MLA from Sheo, Srigopal Baheti, an MLA from Pushkar, Sunil Parihar, an MLA from Siwana, Wajid Khan, an MLA from Masuda, former MLA Habibbur Rahman, an MLA from Nagaur, MLA Khiladi Lal Bairava, an MLA from Baseri, former MLA Dilip Chaudhary, an MLA from Jaitaran, and Kanhaiya Lal Jhanwar, an MLA from Nokha, among many others.
Famous Rajasthani bookmaker Phalodi satta bazaar has been revealing the formula for post-vote gain or loss and has now forecasted a BJP victory in the state. Veteran bookmakers predict that the BJP will win 112–124 seats in the next 2023 elections, while the Congress will get just 62–65.
The same Phalodi bettors who had projected a Congress victory in Karnataka (and 137 seats) also anticipated this outcome when the results were released. That people in Rajasthan’s Phalodi area wager on the next national state elections is an interesting finding. When the nation is having elections, the Phalodi betting market is usually in the news since its predictions are usually correct.