The results of the 2023 elections for the five state assemblies will be known in less than 24 hours at the time this article is written. The various political parties’ futures are already decided somewhere in those EVMs. In contrast to the cricket match that determined the outcome of the 2023 World Cup (trigger warning: may relive trauma), this match’s outcome has already been determined.
Simply put, the scorecard isn’t in front of us yet. By now, exit polls are usually reliable and provide a decent picture of the general trend, whether it be a wave, breeze, tsunami, or something entirely else. In addition to being dispersed throughout, exit polls from multiple sources indicate that the BJP and the Congress will be closely contested, with vote shares anticipated to be within one or two percentage points of one another.
Exit polls are not very helpful in a situation like this. Close races are even indicated in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which are typically the most thorough and accurate. This exit poll, which coincidentally contradicts other agencies’ findings, gives the BJP a clear win in Madhya Pradesh, according to India Today-Axis My India.
What does this entire situation mean? This time, the exit polls have added to the confusion, which was anticipated to clarify the situation. This time, it might truly be anybody’s game. In Mizoram, where neither the Congress nor the BJP are predicted to win, the exit poll is the only one that is clearly visible. A local party called ZPM is the winner and is predicted to win big. That leaves us with four ambiguous states, the resolutions to which we won’t know until Sunday.
This time, the results are extremely intriguing and will significantly impact the new alliance known as India.
These are the three general results for four states (not including Mizoram):
Congress performs admirably, earning a solid 4-0 or 3-1 victory.
The Congress will be viewed as having won decisively if it wins every one of them, or if it wins everyone except for, say, Chhattisgarh. They will be perceived as a party capable of taking on the BJP and defeating them in several states, particularly considering that these outcomes will follow the election outcomes in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. An energized Congress party will result from Rahul Gandhi’s increased prominence. The Lok Sabha elections are different, of course, but the Congress will be seen as resurgent. But the India alliance is put in a difficult situation by this. The Congress will work to consolidate its power. As a result, the India alliance is not overly pleased with Congress’s recent success.
Suppose any two of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh are won by the BJP. After that, if the Congress takes two out of the three states (preferably a larger one like Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan) plus Telangana, the score will be 2-2. In this instance, the Congress and the BJP will both declare victory, and they will both be somewhat correct. However, this would also imply that while the Congress may win some elections, it will not be sufficient to overthrow the BJP on its own.
Even if the Congress were to win Telangana, it would still be viewed as a significant defeat for the Congress and a major victory for the BJP if the BJP won all three of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The argument in this instance will be that the Congress has absolutely no chance of winning in 2024 and that the India alliance as a whole has failed. This is not favorable news for the Congress party or the India alliance.
Therefore, the partners in the non-Congress INDIA alliance are hoping for an Even Stevens 2-2 for the Congress that is neither too hot nor too cold. It appears that a 4-0 result is unlikely, so both the BJP and the Congress are aiming for a sizable victory, which looks like a 3-1 best hope. And we, the voters and viewers, can’t wait for Sunday to arrive, when there will be more nail-biting than during the World Cup of cricket.
