An internal survey by RSS has shown that in forthcoming UP assembly election the Samajwadi party and RLD combine is going to storm the assembly and BJP is not going to touch even three digits. This survey predicts 230 to 250 seats for SP RLD alliance and 65 seats for BJP. It has unnerved the RSS top brasses as defeat in UP assembly election means sure defeat in 2024 general election. The survey also shows that the popularity of Narendra Modi has nosedived, compelling RSS to announce that the assembly elections will not be fought of Modi’s face. It is unbecoming since emergence of Narendra Modi on political landscape of India. From Gram Sabha to Lok Sabha BJP fought every election on Modi’s face but the farmer’s stir and Covid mismanagement has changed his political fortune.
Next year by April five state assemblies will be going to polls. They are Punjab Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand and two from North East. Ruling BJP knows it has hardly any stake in Punjab specially after its break up with Shiromani Akali Dal. In NE too it has hardly any stake though it will like to win there too and will leave no stone unturned to win these states. But its stake in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are very high. It has changed Uttarakhand Chief minister to avert the anti incumbency factor but in UP this process became very tricky for BJP leadership specially for Mr. Narendra Modi and Mr. Amit Shah. For the first time they have got a challenge within their own party which till yesterday was even unthinkable. UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath has not only challenged Modi Shah duo but even to RSS by refusing to budge and going ahead by what he deems fit. Political Pundits are of the view that Yogi Aditya Nath may have failed on the front of governance but he has fielded himself as a more brazen, ruthless and uncompromising Hindu Hriday Samrat harder than Narendra Modi. Since Modi’s popularity is also at downward slide Yogi sees himself more fit to replace him than any other BJP leader. If he accepts his unceremonious exit from power his long term political planning will fail. It was a do or die moment for Yogi and he decided to fight it out.
The second wave of Pandemic Covid 19 and its mismanagement, the heavy death toll and the farmer’s stir have eaten into the popularity of BJP. Western UP was till yesterday BJP’s strongest citadel which it has built on the dead bodies of Muzaffarnagar’s riot victims. Now this citadel is badly shaken BJP very cleverly has drawn a line of hate dislike and enmity between two major communities of the area the Jats and the Muslims on the basis of which it harvested a good political crop during assembly and parliamentary election. But the farmer’s stir and inhuman undemocratic and arrogant attitude of ruling BJP has erased this line of division. Not only Jats and Muslims but all other communities Gurjar Sainis Dalits all are farmers and their interests are hurt with new farm laws and thus they have decided to oppose the BJP in forthcoming election. Farmer leaders Rakesh Tikait etc even went to Bengal and other starts to oppose BJP the farmer’s stir has played a crucial role in the defeat of BJP in Bengal.
On the political front Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav and RLD President Jayant Chaudhary played their card carefully. They not only joined hands but have also brought to their fold other smaller parties like Mahan Dal and Azad Samaj Party of Chandrashekhar Azad .All of them together have formed a formidable political alliance to defeat the mighty BJP. In eastern UP the Samajwadi party is trying to join hands with Suhel Dev Party, Peace Party and Apna Dal.
On the other hand an internal survey by RSS itself has predicted a landslide victory for Samajwadi party and a shameful defeat for BJP. According to this survey if election are held today BJP will hardly get 65 seats. The recently held three tier Panchayat elections have confirmed that the popularity of BJP has nosedived and the Samajwadi party is the natural beneficiary. BJP as of today is going to pay heavy political price mainly due to its arrogance on farmer’s issue mismanagement on pandemic and internal bickering. But political observers and senior journalists are of the view that BJP has many weapons in its armoury. It may opt for more dangerous polarization may resort to communal violence of greater magnitude and any other gimmick that may be generally unthinkable.
One interesting fact is that for the first time Chief Election Commissioner and both Election Commissioners are from UP cadre and are considered to be close to BJP leadership and RSS. Newly appointed election commissioner Anup Chandra Pandey had been chief secretary of UP under yogi Adityanath and has got extension thanks to CM. It smells something which at present can’t be explained . BJP will leave no stone unturned to win UP as road to Delhi goes via Lucknow. The political fight is going to be tough however SP alliance seems to have won the war of perception .To which extent they could maintain this upper hand remains to be seen.