By Shashank Suresh
Narendra Modi recently celebrated his 71st birthday. The grandiose manner in which his administration and party celebrated it sent shockwaves throughout the country, as well as a few murmurs in central Delhi’s typical “gyani” circles. The underground rumour market develops whenever a political party and its administration conduct their business in such secrecy as it is right now. But amid the numerous “expert” views, “inside” stories, and “informed” predictions that circulate, there is seldom a question: Who will succeed Modi?
We notice an intriguing little fact when we look back far enough, till 1947. Modi will be the second Indian prime leader to reach the age of seventy, following Jawaharlal Nehru. Before you catch me, P.V. Narasimha Rao became Prime Minister just a week before his 70th birthday. We understand that the concepts of age, vintage, and ageing have evolved through time and that the seventies are now the new sixties, but let us continue to use Nehru’s age of 71 in 1960 as a benchmark. The ‘after Nehru, who?’ outcry was already building up at this point.
There are parallels and significant contrasts between then and now. The inquiry “who” was not about whose political party it came from back then, as it is now. Indian politics was much more of a one-horse race back then than it appears now. As a result, the succession issue arose from within the Congress. The same rationale would apply to the BJP until someone from the opposition party becomes a viable opponent to Modi in 2024. What futures would you instead buy now for the 2024 outcome if you were a betting person? Don’t worry about your own voting choices.
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That is why there has been no discussion, debate, or whispering about who will head a BJP administration following Modi. The prime minister has set a 75-year-old age restriction for his party’s officials. Mohan Bhagwat, the RSS’s head, has reiterated his devotion to his organisation. Modi will be 75 years old in 2025, a little over a year into his third term (if he wins in 2024).
Never rule out Modi because there is always the possibility of an exception. We know that political parties are increasingly becoming cults centred on a leader or dynasty. We come to politics because we desire power, as Haryana veteran Om Prakash Chautala memorably stated. Dharam-Karam and teerth-yatra are not suitable. What are my chances of succeeding in the line of succession? Is it possible to criticise or criticise someone in the BJP who is contemplating his future?
We aren’t astrologers by any stretch of the imagination. We use evidence to interpret politics. We can observe and demonstrate. If you look at the BJP’s current “A” squad, it’s clear who belongs and where they rank. Also, keep in mind that this is the RSS’s most vulnerable period. Take a look back at some of the political happenings of the previous week. Just as Modi and Shah were enacting this dramatic cleansing in Gujarat, Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, grabbed headlines with his unapologetically divisive “Abba Jaan” war cry in a public address that appeared to be the start of his re-election campaign.
At this time, more prominent names in the BJP may have said things more risqué than this, so let’s ignore it. Which chief minister spends the most money on public relations to promote himself? Yogi will beat Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thackeray, and any other politician you select by a factor of three, if not more.
Yogi is the only one who has plastered pictures of himself sharing space with Modi on Delhi’s famed bus shelters. Hoardings may also be seen in other sections of Delhi, such as the diplomatic zone. We are aware that many UP voters go to Delhi for employment. Haryana, on the other hand, is in the same boat. Have you seen Khattar on any of these in Delhi?
All analysts, whether on the Left, Right, Center, or unhyphenated, agree on one thing: the BJP is now as much of a high-command-run party as the Congress was during Indira Gandhi’s heyday. So, here’s the trick question: Are Uttar Pradesh’s state government and chief minister likewise managed by high command?
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As chief minister of Gandhinagar, Modi created the Gujarat Model. Hand-picked cabinet, mainly powerless ministers, and a government-managed by loyal civil employees. It was such a hit in the state that he won three elections in a row. He also took it to Delhi. Yogi is doing the same thing, except he’s turning Uttar Pradesh into a carbon copy of Gujarat under Modi. Modi has the power to reshuffle the Gujarat government at any time, including the chief minister.
On the other hand, Yogi picks his own, assigns portfolios, and, of course, retains full authority in Lucknow. Yogi is also a clever cookie. He had a much larger-than-life image of Modi as his backdrop when he gave the Abba Jaan address, and he fawningly alluded to him numerous times.
To clear up any misunderstanding, no one in the BJP will confront Modi. He has the power to control the party for as long as he wants. Yogi will not, and will not be able to, challenge him. However, another power centre is forming inside the BJP. He’s one of our youngest senior leaders, even younger than Kejriwal, at 49. He isn’t from the RSS, but he already has a sizable following among the BJP’s hardliners.
By a long shot, Modi is the first. According to the most recent India Today Mood of the Nation Poll, he is the BJP’s second-most popular candidate for prime minister. For the record, while the BJP base likes him more than anybody after Modi, he is incapable of garnering the votes needed to give Modi’s BJP a clear majority.
We might claim that at least one other BJP satrap could hold his own with the high command until a year ago. With the departure of Yediyurappa from Karnataka this year, that altered. Yogi isn’t easily swayed. And he’s in a tight spot with his high command. If he does not win next year, the party’s chances in 2024 will be jeopardised. If he wins, it will be viewed as both his and the high command’s victory. And this will have long-term implications for the BJP.